ShepWave Pre-Market / Intra Day Update for Wednesday Published
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 10/2/2018 17:35 EST
3:27 PM ET USA. Important Intra-Day Update for Wednesday Published The intra day reversal has important implications. Read the notes carefully in this last intra day update for today. Aggressive traders open the Russell 2000 trade will want to see the new notes. Log In at www.shepwave.com for today's Intra Day ShepWave Update.
11:13 AM ET USA. Intra Day Update for Wednesday:
To those active traders who are open the short term aggressive position in the Russell 2000 index, please read the notes in today's intra day update closely.
The Dow Industrials hit another intra day high today, possibly revealing some key short to mid term technicals.
See key short-to-mid term technical trigger areas in the 60 min SPY, 60 min DOW INDU, and QQQ/NDX charts.
Log In at www.shepwave.com for today's Intra Day ShepWave Update.
ShepWave Pre-Market / Intra Day Update for Wednesday Published
Most of us here at ShepWave have been trading for many years. We know that at key market turns there will be an apparent effort to shake-out weak traders. That is what I believe is happening currently.
The short term trading ranges are still working effectively--for traders paying attention to the minor adjustments made to these critical short term patterns.
After Tuesday's market activity ShepWave has adjusted the short term trading ranges and patterns for some of the indexes and their ETFs.
The action in the Russell 2000 index since our trading decision last week has been profitable for many of you. But--it is still too early to be overconfident. Read all the notes in this update carefully and understand the risks involved and what we are looking for to confirm the trend(s) for the major U.S. equity indexes.
Now is NOT the time to be a sloppy trader/investor.
We encourage every trader and investor to think back to the markets leading up to the November 2016 Presidential Election--and the fact that on the night of the election the Futures for the Dow Industrials were DOWN 1,000 points below fair value but that created the PIVOT and Break-Out which formed the key mid term support line for the major U.S. equity indexes. This is as ShepWave has been covering for the past two years.
Despite the TIME-CYCLE TURN DATES we give--there is no substitution for using the actual trade triggers.
Log In at www.shepwave.com for Wednesday's Pre-Market / Intra Day ShepWave Update.
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Investing is hard. You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis, listen to talk shows and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what's next.
One popular stock market "indicator" is interest rates. Analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates means lower stocks.
But does the conventional wisdom about interest rates and stocks square with reality? Let's do a brief historical review.
From October 1974 to December 1976, the stock market rose as the Fed funds rates trended lower. This occurred again from July 1984 to August 1987. Conversely, stock prices faltered as interest rates climbed from January 1973 to October 1974 and again from December 1976 to February 1978. So far, so good: rates up/stocks down, or vice versa.
But stock prices have also fallen as interest rates declined -- more than once. Take a look at the chart below. The commentary is from the February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist:
[The chart] shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. They display routs of 54% to 89%. In all these cases, interest rates fell, and in two of those cases they went all the way to zero!
The next chart shows you when stocks and interest rates trended higher together. You can see the Dow rise from March 2003 to October 2007 as rates climb from around 1% to over 5%.
Here's the point: There is no consistent relationship between interest rates and the stock market.
That doesn't mean volatility will be absent around the time of a Fed meeting. But, if that ever turns out to be the case, keep this in mind from a classic Elliott Wave Theorist:
The Fed's decision will not cause any such volatility; it just may (or may not) coincide with it. Whether volatility continues around the Fed's meeting is up to the markets, not the Fed... [The] Fed's meeting, therefore, is not crucial, pivotal, historic or momentous. It is mostly irrelevant.
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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Reference: Shepwave.com is a technical analysis site for the Major U.S. stock indexes. We use Elliott Wave theory along with our proprietary indicators to give analysis for the Dow Industrials, Nadaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes. We specialize in trading the QQQ and DIA. |
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