ShepWave ALL Updates for Monday Published. AND--FREE ACCESS to Article from EWI on Activity in Crude Oil!
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 8/18/2018 00:28 EST
10:55 AM ET USA. INTRA DAY SHEPWAVE UPDATE PUBLISHED: The wedge pattern we have been using for short term trading over that past several days in the QQQ/NDX is still in play. Based on emails--this has been a profitable pattern for many of us over the past week. Read notes carefully in today's Intra Day Update. Log In at www.shepwave.com for today's Intra Day ShepWave Update.
Pre-Market / Intra Day Update for Monday Published.
Be sure to read all of the notes in all of the charts in this update for Monday.
As said for last Monday, August, 13,2018:
When is an apparent or possible Island Reversal *not* an Island Reversal?
Answer: to be found in this Pre-Market / Intra Day Update for Monday, August 13th .
Here is your clue: it has something to do with successive gap opens.
And notice how last week ended up? THE RECENT SHORT TERM GAP DOWN OPENS FILLED!
Now is not the time to be a naïve and reckless trader/investor. Read all notes and analysis carefully!
More whip-saw and quick reversals coming!
Log In at www.shepwave.com for Monday's Pre-Market / Intra Day ShepWave Update.
ALL UPDATES FOR MONDAY HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED.
The SECOND ShepWave Update for Monday has been published.
The Regular Update, showing daily time frame analysis and triggers for the major U.S. equity indexes; Crude Oil: GOLD; and the VIX.
For Major U.S. Equity Indexes: as suspected--we saw a critical move and rally this past Thursday and Friday to fill-the-gaps as was mentioned Wednesday evening (8/15/2018) for this past Thursday's Regular Update.
YOU JUST CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP!
But now is not the time to be lazy. Follow the signals as they come.
IMPORTANT: closely read the new notes in the daily chart of the Dow Industrial index as given in this second Regular Update for Monday. Take SIGNALS as they come. Don't be anticipating a move without the proper signal.
WTI-CRUDE OIL has been issuing some profitable turn-signals. We may be ready for another!
The OUTISDE DOWN WEEK technical pattern in Gold from several weeks ago--brought some quick and direct selling activity. Notice the 200 week moving average of GOLD is now broken. This will play into our mid to longer term trading and investing of GOLD.
It is recommended for newer subscribers to go through past updates to get a feel for what technical information has brought us up to this point.
ShepWave analysis is always building upon previous technicals and analysis.
As a note of caution: There are a lot of analysts who try to predict wave counts. Please be careful of doing that. It is good to understand the dynamics and underlying principles of Elliott Wave Theory but in the labeling of wave patterns, remember that no pattern or wave count is official until the next wave series begins. So many otherwise really good analysts seem not to understand this simple concept with regards to Elliott Wave Theory. The key is to follow the appropriate Trade Triggers as given by ShepWave analysis.
Log In at http://www.shepwave.com/ for Monday's ShepWave Updates
SPECIAL ShepWave Update for Monday Published: Weekly Time Frame analysis for the Major U.S. equity Indexes as well as WTI CRUDE-OIL and GOLD has been published.
NOTICE that we at ShepWave have rarely had to change the analysis on the weekly time frames over the past several weeks--maybe even months--for the equity indexes. This should be telling you something.
SPECIAL Article From Elliott Wave International Below:
Here is link if you want to download yourself: https://www.elliottwave.com/Energy/Why-Oil-Prices-Fell--Stockpiles-or-Price-Pattern?acn=6sw&rcn=aa776&sc_camp=ECCB222EB6474C21BEAFE975B26FA847&dy=aa081718
Let's cut right to the chart below. The shaded triangle highlights the dramatic price action in crude oil prices on August 15, when crude plummeted 3% to its lowest level in over nine weeks.
Now, according to the mainstream experts, the number one catalyst for crude's collapse was a shockingly bearish same-day Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report, marked with the orange arrow in the bottom right of the chart.
What made the report so bearish was the fact that analysts forecast a 2.5 million decrease in oil stockpiles in the week ending August 10, while the EIA data showed a 6.8 million-barrel increase! Wrote one August 15 news source: "Crude Oil Prices Slammed by Surprise U.S. Inventories Build." (Seeking Alpha)
It's a perfect fit -- in the popular, news-moves-markets model, that is. The market was expecting one thing and got the complete opposite. Cue brutal selloff.
The problem with that model, however, is that it does investors and traders no favors. At best, it offers convenient explanations for price moves -- after they've already occurred.
Let's go back to the chart and consider the other arrow, the blue one labeled EWP, for the Elliott Wave Principle.
On August 14 -- one day before the bearish EIA report was released -- our Energy Pro Service identified a bearish Elliott wave setup on crude oil's price chart. There, Energy Pro Service editor Steve Craig outlined the most probable course for crude oil in the days ahead:
"Crude should be in the final leg of a countertrend advance, be it wave ii, or the larger-degree wave ((ii)). Resistance above the 68.37 intraday high is around 68.48 and then 69.11. On the downside, trade below 67.38 would offer an aggressive hint that a downward reversal is underway... the key point is that the larger trend is down."
What happened next?
The chart below sums it up best: Crude oil finished its wave ii and hit the skids in the 3% selloff on August 15.
Elliott wave analysis posits that the main driver of market trends is investor psychology, which unfolds as Elliott wave patterns directly on price charts.
These patterns are measurable and predictable, so they enable Elliotticians to anticipate future price moves -- before they arise.
If you are prepared to take the next step in educating yourself about the basics of the Wave Principle -- access the FREE Online Tutorial from Elliott Wave International.
The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive online course with the same content you'd receive in a formal training class -- but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like!
Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
| Reference: Shepwave.com is a technical analysis site for the Major U.S. stock indexes. We use Elliott Wave theory along with our proprietary indicators to give analysis for the Dow Industrials, Nadaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes. We specialize in trading the QQQ and DIA. |
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