ShepWave Updates for Thursday. Markets Remain Highly Predictable--note the Signal from this past Monday--and now NEW TRIGGERS!
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 2/28/2018 23:00 EST

2:00 PM ET USA  THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Important  Intra Day Update Published.  YOU JUST CAN'T MAKE THIS STUFF UP!

It is actually entertaining---considering that on Monday ShepWave entered into some (what we called) very aggressive short term bearish positions(s) and here it is just a few days later and the DOW INDUSTRIALS is once again selling off hundreds of points--it is down over 500 points as I type this email.

PLEASE--do not get overconfident.

The wise among you will be looking into the ShepWave Updates from this past weekend, and from Monday,  to see just WHY ShepWave saw the aggressive bearish short term opportunity.

Read the important new notes in today's Intra Day Update.  Mainly--we want to keep in mind (1) the preferred short term targets and (2) the formation of the short term wave action to support further trade entries and/or exits.

ALSO---do not forget the very important potential TIME--CYCLE TURN DATE!

Log In at www.shepwave.com for today's Intra Day ShepWave Update.

Read the Regular Update for Thursday published--showing the critical daily time frame charts and analysis for the major U.S. equity indexes, Crude Oil, GOLD, and the VIX.

LONG TERM TRADERS and INVESTORS: Read the critical notes that apply to you. Notice how nicely a key trend line has come back into play. A trend line we have had in place for more than a year.

We have some important NEW TECHNICALS for the major U.S. equity indexes on the daily time frame--the short term signals have been working out nicely--but now even the daily time frame charts (as in the Regular Update for Thursday) is revealing some key NEW TRIGGER AREAS on that time frame that need to be watched carefully and closely.  

CRUDE OIL TRADERS:  We are currently in a similar situation as in equities--see notes and NEW TRIGGER!

G0LD--is at a critical level. Read new notes closely.

Also--read the Pre-Market / Intra Day Update for Thursday

SEE HOW THE SHORT TERM AGGRESSIVE TRADE SIGNALS JUST SINCE THIS PAST MONDAY (2/26/2018) HAVE BEEN WORKING OUT FLAWLESSLY.  DO NOT BE SLOPPY NOW!

Log In at http://www.shepwave.com/ for Thursday's ShepWave Updates.

$169 SIX MONTH ShepWave Subscription Special.

Worried about the FED?

Should You "Fret" Over the New Fed Chair's Possible Actions?
Learn what really governs the trend of interest rates

By Elliott Wave International

Is new Fed Chair Jerome Powell a hawk -- meaning, will he aggressively raise rates to curb inflation?

That's what investors are asking as Powell makes his first appearance before Congress in his new role. The belief that Powell will be hawkish has already rattled markets, according to some observers (Reuters, Feb. 23):

Markets fret over Federal Reserve's approach under new chair Powell

Investors are starting to doubt whether they can count on the protective embrace of an accommodative U.S. central bank when markets go haywire.

Of course, "accommodative" means leaving interest rates low, or raising them slowly and a little at a time. This is "accommodative" to the stock market because low rates are supposed to motivate investors to seek higher returns in the stock market. On the other hand, higher rates would provide competition for stocks.

Here's something to keep in mind, before we go on: EWI's studies show no consistent relationship between the trend in rates and the stock market. Even so, this belief remains widespread.

Getting back to whether Powell will be aggressive with raising rates, our research posits that wondering about the new Fed chair's possible future actions is based on a false premise.

You see, the evidence shows that the Fed does not act; it reacts. It reacts to the bond market. In other words, the bond market leads the way on rates, not the Fed.

Robert Prechter's 2017 book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance, provides a historical example when it showed this chart and said:

No one monitoring the Fed's decisions can predict when T-bill rates will change, but anyone monitoring the T-bill rate can predict with fair accuracy when the Fed will change its funds rate. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast demonstrated this ability in September 2007 by predicting that the Fed was about to lower its federal funds rate dramatically.

The aftermath is shown in this chart:

As you can see, the Fed's benchmark rate followed the T-bills rate lower.

This pattern maintained even during the dramatic period of double-digit rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s.... T-bill rates peaked four times in 1980-1982. Each of those peaks occurred a month or more before subsequent and reactive peaks in the federal funds rate. The Fed's rate also lags at bottoms, [such as] the lows of 1980, 1981 and 1982-3.

So, regarding interest rates, it's best to monitor the bond market, not the Fed.

Financial markets are governed by investory psychology, which expresses itself in repetitive price patterns at all degrees of trend. We call them Elliott wave patterns.

Following these patterns in the bond markets -- something us here at EWI do regularly and share our findings with subscribers -- can help you anticipate what's next for interest rates.

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