The Dow Industrials index had a 821 point range last week from its low to its high but closed the week 259 points below its high of the week.  The Dow closed the week down 160 points or 1.21% from the previous week.  The S&P 500 closed down 7.7 points or .53%, the Nasdaq 100 index closed down 36.36 or 1.89%.  Are the indexes in uncharted territory?  Not really, if you compare the recent action to the action from the highs set in 2000 it is very similar.  Of course you won't hear that on Financial Television Programs. 

In March of 2000 when the Nasdaq hit its all time and started selling off all you heard on TV was that unemployment was at at 4.0-4.1%, a 30 year low and the 'economy is strong' etc.  Then several months later after the sell off they were saying , "well, the stock market is a 'leading indicator'' of the economic condition.  'They' will always come up with some excuse. In the meantime investors are losing money. 

I only mention this because it shows the lack of responsibility (in my opinion)  of most market 'pundits' to tell the true facts.  One can twist and turn any news item, whether it be about  reading the FED's thoughts to Economic data to fit what ever they want.  That is why our goal at ShepWave is to use objective Technical FACTS to indicate the dominant trends.

So, what is the mid to longer term trend.  In today's update I show several technical indicators from the indexes and from technical indicators such as the Volatility Index(VIX), Bullish Percentage Index, and 50 Day Moving Average Index.  Be careful trying to trade off of these indexes.  The 'pundits' keep showing charts of the VIX and showing only the chart from 2002 to the recent highs.  Well, that was a five year rally.  It was a rally that had a technical formation that should give a bearish warning to any market technician.  We saw 'ending diagonal' patterns in the major indexes, which, as mentioned many times by ShepWave, once broken can lead to very sharp moves. 

Today's Update shows what we need to see to further confirm either continued long term Bullishness or that the trend has turned Bearish.

Go to http://www.shepwave.com/ for today's ShepWave Update.

Stock Market Technical Analysis.  Elliott Wave Theory.

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