ShepWave Update for ALL TO VIEW. U.S. Indexes Topping?
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 9/17/2006 21:56 EST
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Shepwave.com - www.shepwave.com Print, and hit the Back Button - page served 9/17/2006 9:49:32 PM ShepWave Update for Monday Date Posted: 9/17/2006 9:49:19 PM
The markets are still in BULL mode? This recent upward cycle from the July lows has been testing our analysis at ShepWave.. and we missed it. I do NOT like that. It is still the belief of ShepWave that the markets are looking at a potential precipitous drop in the near future. In tonight's update I show charts for the DOW, GOOG, BAC, NDX, and S&P 500. Since there is no real analysis that is confirming in this update and no targets.. I am publishing this update for the entire ShepWave email list. CHARTS REMOVED The 60 minute chart of the Dow above shows that the index does not have much to go to make a new high to the high set in May. Breaking that high would alter the mid term counts and make the new high a primary wave 2. The alternate count to that would be that the recent rally since May is BULLISH and we are beginning a five wave sequence to make a new all time high. ShepWave is not looking for this possibility to play out. The markets 'should' top soon and then continue downward with purpose. CHARTS REMOVED The daiy chart of the Nasdaq 100 index above shows that the index barely broke the retracement taget of a Fibonacci 61.8% of the decline. NOW would be a good time for the index to resume SELL mode. We will be watching closely this coming week for some Sell Signals to confirm our already SHORT Positions.. which are in the RED. Our saving grace 'should' be that once the sell signals are in we get a strong precipitous move. VERY IMPORTANT Remember that the Dow Transporations index is NOT confirming the recent rally. This is something that was missing in last May's Top for the indexes. CHARTS REMOVED As most of the long term subscribers of ShepWave know: we like to use the S&P 500 index to confirm and strenghten any trading moves. The good thing about the 30 minute chart of the S&P 500 index above is that the recent C wave 'can' count complete with an extended Fifth wave (not uncommon) and we are seeing some bearish divergence. Again, we will be looking for confirming Sell SIgnals this week to strengthen bearish positions. A break of 1,263 is necessary to confirm longer term bearishness for the Indexes as a whole. CHARTS REMOVED The Daily chart of BAC (Bank of America) above shows it has gone NO WHERE.. ShepWave is positioned with some Options.. (See trade diary)... we could get a pop this week, but I see it as unlikely that we get a 'throwover' of the upper trend line. We should be able to exit this position in the next 3 or 4 weeks with a nice profit. CHARTS REMOVED As easy as we made money on GOOG last Spring and early Summer the recent pattern has been frustrating. The daily chart of GOOG above shows that we recently had a slight break of the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement target. Sell Signal on 60 minute charts should confirm recent positions... still looking for a nice profit on this one (100-200%). We have the December contracts... Yes, I wish we would have bought them after the recent pop.. but we protected ourselves on this one by giving ourselves plenty of time. That is all for today. I will update as needed this week. Shep Browse through our BLOG for recent trade data. When the Dow Industrials Index recently hit a multi-year high in May the Financial Television Channels were pumping the rally. Flashing a ticker showing how many points to a new all time high. Who did this help? Click here to see one of many updates published that week showing our analysis and how we were positioning ourselves to PROFIT from the upcoming turn. Are these Financial Information channels helping the average investor or perpetuating denial as to the mid and longer term direction of the U.S. Markets? Click here to read our update from May 13, 2006. TARGETS HIT. |
| Reference: Shepwave.com is a technical analysis site for the Major U.S. stock indexes. We use Elliott Wave theory along with our proprietary indicators to give analysis for the Dow Industrials, Nadaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes. We specialize in trading the QQQ and DIA. |
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