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| A Ghost I Haven't Seen For a While... 7/6/2006 5:43:26 PM " Historically, two things have always been true about the world's estimated oil reserves: 1) The experts chronically underestimate the size of those reserves, and, 2) The actual size of the world's proven oil reserves has increased every year for as long as records have been kept....Read More |
Fed Watchers, Beware Your Beliefs 7/6/2006 6:27:00 PM " People think that the Fed 'managed' the economy brilliantly in the 1980s and 1990s. But the deep flaws in the Fed's manipulation of the banking system to induce and facilitate the extension of credit will bear bitter fruit in the next depression.Read More |
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| Why DIDN'T the Dollar Rally Today? 7/6/2006 12:42:38 PM " If last week's main event was the Fed's decision to raise U.S. interest rates for the 17th consecutive time, this weeks 'main attraction' has to be the meeting by the Fed's counterpart, the European Central Bank, about the same issue. Well, the ECB did meet today -- and left the rates unchanged.~OK, let's do some basic fundamental analysis now. The Fed raised the U.S. rates to 5.25% last week. The ECB kept theirs at 2.75% today. The U.S. rates remain almost twice as high as in Europe, giving the USD a clear interest rate advantage. You would think that in this situation, the USD would soar, right? Nope... Read on.~Read More |
The Perfect Storm In O.J. 7/6/2006 12:17:23 PM " If you want to know about hurricanes, read the mainstream financial news stories on orange juice. If you want to know where OJ prices are headed in the days to come, read Daily Futures Junctures....Read More |
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| Global Markets Ready for World Cup 6/5/2006 2:27:51 PM " World Cup football is here, with the opening matches of FIFA's Germany 2006 scheduled for Friday, June 9. Keeping track of all of the teams and the matches is a gargantuan task -- much like the task any investor faces when trying to track financial markets around the world.~Read More |
Europe: 'Sell in May...' or 'Summer Rally'? 7/3/2006 9:11:23 AM " They don't just say, 'Sell in May and go away...' for nothing. May and June are never the friendliest time for stocks -- but this year, they've been particularly harsh. In all fairness, though, the recent declines weren't completely unexpected. Many European analysts went on record calling for a 10% correction -- sooner rather than later. And how could you not? European indexes haven't had a decent correction in over three years, so the recent 'hiccups' could be just that.~It's precisely this 'normalcy' to the declines that makes it tempting to call them 'just a correction.' And then go ahead and load up on 'cheap' European stocks... But as Tom Denham, editor of our European Financial Forecast Service, warns: 'The current juncture is a difficult one. Buying European stocks now would be a little like trying to catch a falling knife. You might succeed, but there is a good chance of being cut.' How do you avoid getting 'cut'? Know what the larger trend is. And the just published, July European Financial Forecast tells you just that... Read on.~NEW! NEW! NEW! Our European Financial Forecast Service (EFFS) now tells you about Special Global Opportunities -- three times a week!~The latest updates include forecasts for the Singapore Straits Times Index and the India Sensex Index. See The European Short Term Update for details (ESTU; part of the EFFS). You'll find Special Opportunities reviewed earlier in the Archives section of the ESTU.Read More |
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