ShepWave Important Updates for Thursday Published
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 1/22/2014 20:05 EST

Two updates for Thursday have been published.

The Regular Scheuled Update for Thursday gives the analysis using the daily time frame for the Equity indexes, Crude Oil, Gold and the VIX. There are important notes concerning the recent action in Crude Oil which can directly influence the equity indexes. Also note the trigger for Gold.

The Pre-market Update identifies some critical short term wave patterns that should affect Thursday's action and possibly Friday's action. Short to mid term traders will want to read these notes closely.

Log In at www.shepwave.com for Thursday's Important ShepWave Updates

11:05 PM ET Additional Pre-Market Notes Published

IMPORTANT ANALYSIS PUBLISHED. The futures have turned negative since the two updates were published earlier. This alters our trade-at-open strategy a bit. See the technicals we are watching.

Log In at www.shepwave.com for the Pre-market ShepWave Update for Thursday with the Additional Pre-Market Notes.

Important Thursday Afternoon Update Published

So far 2014 has given us many volatile intra day moves, just a dream year so far for traders. Hopefuully every one is utilizing the triggers as issued in the pre-market update.

I know many of you have already locked in over 30-40% in profits in just the past couple of weeks. Of course those are the aggressive traders; Good job! Hopefully the rest of the year remains as profitable as it has so far.

There is an aggressive intra day TRADE NOW given.

Log In at www.shepwave.com for today's Intra Day ShepWave Update

3:09 IMPORTANT Update regarding today's close. AGGRESSIVE TRADE GIVEN

This volatilty is ideal for traders. Based on emails you are all doing well with this action today. The key is that eveyone understands the triggers and technicals that we were watching at the open for the signals.

Note the aggressive TRADE NOW for this afternoon. Use tight stops. SEE TARGETS for this trade.

Log In at www.shepwave.com for this afternoon's update in the Intra Day ShepWave Update.

The $159 One Year Subscription special is still in progress. But it will be ending soon; I believe that all the regular subscribers who wanted to participate have done so.

Also, below is a good article by Elliott Wave International. If you have not signed up for thier free Club EWI I strongly recommend doing so.

Commodities Falling Despite QE: What Does That Mean?
Robert Prechter: "Charts tell the truth. Let's look at some charts."

By Elliott Wave International

During QE3, the latest round of the Fed's quantitative easing, the stock market rose. We all know that.

But did you also know that commodities fell?

That's right: QE3 had zero effect on commodities -- or maybe even a negative effect. In fact, an unbiased observer of the trend might conclude that the Fed drove commodity prices down.

That, of course, would be heresy to investors who believe that the Fed's actions have been inflating all financial markets.

What should you make of the fact that commodities have failed to respond to the massive, historic, unprecedented central-bank stimulus? We see it as a red flag.

What's more, you may be surprised to know that not one of the Fed's stimulus programs -- QE1, QE2 and QE3 -- pushed up commodity prices.

As Robert Prechter, the president of Elliott Wave International, wrote in his November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist, "Charts tell the truth. Let's look at some charts." These four charts and analysis that he published in May, July, and November 2013 tell the story:


(Robert Prechter, July 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist)

The CRB index of commodities has been losing ground for more than two years, as shown in Figure 3. Notice the four short arrows on the chart. Based on their positions, you might think they would mark the timing of accurate sell signals generated by a secret indicator. But there's no secret indicator. These happen to be the times at which the Fed launched its inflationary QE programs!



Investors almost universally take news at face value rather than paradoxically as they should. So they believed the Fed's QE actions would be bullish for commodities. But -- ironically yet naturally -- every launch of a new QE program provided an opportunity to sell commodities near a high.

The first time the Fed bought a slew of new assets (QE0) was in 2008, and commodities went straight down during the entire buying spree.

QE1 (see below) was just a swapping of assets, not new buying, so it wasn't inflationary; ironically, commodities rose during this time.



Commodities rose a little bit after the inflationary QE2 started but ultimately went lower. Since QE3 and QE4 -- the two most aggressive programs of inflating the Fed has ever initiated -- commodity prices have been trending lower as well.

Are commodities just late and poised to soar? I don't think so. Figure 4 shows a chart of the CRB index published in The Elliott Wave Theorist back in May 2011.



It shows a three-step, countertrend rally ... inside of a parallel trend channel ... at a [Fibonacci] 62% retracement ... thus giving three reasons to expect a peak at that time. [Indeed] the CRB index has trended moderately but persistently lower since then.

Prechter gave another update in his November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist:


Commodities are in a bear market. Figure 1 proves that the Fed's feverish quantitative easing (QE) -- i.e. record fiat-money inflating -- is not driving overall prices of goods higher.



The bear market in commodities began two months before the Fed's massive asset-buying program began. Despite the Fed's inflating at a 33% rate annually for five straight years, commodities are still slipping lower.

Prechter's final point from the November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist summarizes it best:

None of the believers in omnipotent monetary authorities and their pledges to inflate saw any of those changes coming. Meanwhile, we couldn't see how it could turn out any other way.

The largest inverted debt pyramid in the history of the world is the reason that QE won't work. The future is already fully mortgaged.


http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?acn=6sw&rcn=aa397&dy=aa012114&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.elliottwave.com%2Faffiliates%2Ffeatured-commentary%2Fcommodities-falling.aspx%3Fcode%3D83565