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Posted: 2/29/2012 17:01 EST

Democracy's Longest Decline in 40 Years: Was It Predictable?

With socionomics, it's no surprise at all...

by Nathaniel Williams

Democracy has long been considered a model political structure for self-governing societies. So why is "government of the people, by the people, for the people" losing ground? Consider what The Economist magazine observed:

"Freedom House, a New York-based body that monitors a range of political and civil rights, reported that 2010 saw a net decline in liberty across the world for the fifth year in a row, the longest continual decline in four decades of record keeping.... Western governments have become shy about spreading the idea that certain human rights, enshrined in the United Nations conventions, are universal."
- The Economist, September 2011 (emphasis added)

You may find this turn of events shocking, and rest assured that we have yet to hear a satisfactory "fundamental" explanation of the trend. But with socionomics - the study of social mood - we can say that at this juncture it's no surprise at all. Robert Prechter applied socionomic principles to anticipate this trend more than 19 years ago:

"The numbers [Francis Fukuyama] presents showing the rise of liberal democracy merely track the trend of the stock market, i.e., of positive social mood, from its Grand Supercycle degree low in 1784 to its current all-time high. In fact, the two 'corrections' of the trend roughly coincided with bear phases in stocks.... As the worldwide decline in fortunes takes hold, the number of liberal democracies will shrink."
- The Elliott Wave Theorist, June 1992 (emphasis added)

In other words, the same social mood that governs the stock market also guides how nations govern themselves.

And the number of liberal democracies has indeed decreased, just as Prechter forecast. The new issue of The Socionomist includes a stunning chart that allows you to see for yourself how the number of democracies tracks the DJIA, the best measure of social mood.

The Socionomist can you prepare for changes in social mood that most people never see coming - such as a downturn in global democracy. It offers you a perspective that you simply will not find elsewhere.

The new issue's featured article, "Democracy Under Attack," provides you with our uniquely insightful socionomic analysis of this issue. Preview the new issue below.

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This article is syndicated by The Socionomist, a publication of the Socionomics Institute, and was originally published under the headline Democracy's Longest Decline in 40 Years: Was It Predictable?. The Socionomist is designed to help readers understand and anticipate waves of social mood. Copyright © 2012 Socionomics Institute.