ShepWave
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Elliott Wave Theory stock market technical analysis. Major U.S. Indexes.
Specializing in QQQ and the DIA analysis and trading. QQQ and DIA Options trading.
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ShepWave Special Update on Crude and the VIX.
by ShepWave.com
Posted: 5/5/2011 20:40 EST

The Update pasted below was posted on ShepWave site on Thursday evening. We feel it is important to share some of this information with everyone.

Note that the $99 Six Month Special Subscription will be ending at Mid Night tonight. Shep Wave Rates can be found at the Subscription page.

 


Shepwave.com - www.shepwave.com
Print, and hit the Back Button - page served 5/5/2011 8:38:58 PM
 
ShepWave Special Crude Oil and VIX Update
Date Posted: 5/5/2011 8:37:28 PM

Special Crude Oil Update.

READ the Pre-Market / Intra Day Update for Friday.

NOTE: this update will published on the blog (open for public view). The markets are at a critical juncture in my opinion. It is important that we all try to educate others.  Study, Teach, Study, Teach...that is our goal. Objectivity and Discipline are two of the most important factors in anyone's trading or investing.

Read the notes in the daily chart of Crude Oil above. Compare these notes to those which were published on April 24, 2011. (That update is posted in the ShepWave Blog).

The daily chart of the VIX (Volatility Index for the NYSE) above is important. We must be careful 'trading off of' the VIX. It is not something that one should trade off of, but rather it is a barometer of sorts to confirm our trades which are based on the charting analysis of the vehicle we are trading.

Watch for the VIX to break above 19.11. If this happens the initial target is to 31 area. But, I think we may be dealing with something biggger here. I would not be surprised to see the 31 area smashed and see the VIX at about the 50 range within a week. This is all going to become clearer Friday morning. Friday's open is very important. We could have a major sell off on our hands OR we could see a bounce to yet a new recent high. The charts will tell.

Do not forget the fact that the strength (RSI) of the recent move in the equities was strong on a weekly and daily basis. Refer to recent updates for more clarification on this topic.

I know this may sound confusing. If you have been following along the past couple days I think you probably understand what I am saying now. And hopefully you have made a lot of money. The past few days have been some 'easy' trading.

Remember, Stay DISCIPLINED, Stay OBJECTIVE, and stay SAFE. Always lock in profits when you can. Never get greedy, unless you can afford to get greedy. The key to good trading is to make profits every day,week, or whatever your trading style dictates.

Minimizing losses. That is where most traders go wrong. Some of us will hang on to a losing trade until we either get a margin call or wipe out our trading account.


One more secret for traders. Do not be tempted by the margin. Yes you can carry a trade overnight that, say for example, is worth $100,000 and you only have $50,000 in your account. That kind of leverage is really good when WE ARE RIGHT.  BUT!!!NEVER ASSUME THAT ANYONE'S ANALYSIS (MINE OR YOURS) IS ALWAYS 100% CORRECT!  Always trade within the limits of your risk/tolerance and your trading style.Trading Style:  This is something I will begin going over during the next few trading sessions.

We all saw what happened to Silver (cf. SLV the ETF for Silver, Thursday, April 28th ShepWave Update) when the margin rules were changed (putting it in layman's terms). SLV dropped from almost $50 to the $33 range. Margin rules can be changed at any time. Also, all of you Pattern Day Traders. I know the margin rules have been eased up recently. Do not get used to that. They can change at any time. Always stay CASH STRONG!

Not evveryone's trading style is the same. That is why I have been hesitant to show my trades on the site. I do not want you to concentrate on what I am trading, I want you to concentrate on what YOU SHOULD TRADE.

Read the notes in the charts above.

Shep

 

Reference: Shepwave.com is a technical analysis site for the Major U.S. stock indexes. We use Elliott Wave theory along with our proprietary indicators to give analysis for the Dow Industrials, Nadaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes. We specialize in trading the QQQ and DIA.
 
 
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